Recent reporting on bird flu and the possibility of a world-wide pandemic of killer influenza has been alarmist, contradictory, or both. Looks like the reporters are confused and the experts have been misleading.

There is a need for foreign-trained epidemiologists here in Vietnam to analyze the bird flu situation. If I did not have a child to worry about, I would definitely be volunteering my services. In addition to analyzing data, perhaps I could even help clean up the public health message.

From Agence France-Presse, March 2, 2005:

End in sight for Viet bird flu outbreak: WHO

The latest reports of bird flu in Vietnam are not necessarily alarming and the current outbreak is probably ending, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said yesterday.

“It’s not an alarming situation,” said Dr. Hans Troedsson, Vietnam’s WHO representative. “What we see is the end of this outbreak.”
…
WHO regional director Shigeru Omi warned at a global forum in Ho Chi Minh City last week of “the gravest possible danger of a pandemic”.

So is it the end or not?

I still do not handle raw chicken or chicken products in the home, but continue to eat it if it’s cooked outside. The problem is, many of the restaurants do not sell chicken anymore much to the disappointment of my chicken-loving husband and son. I don’t know if restaurant workers are afraid to prepare chicken or if there’s no demand.

Countries, such as the UK, have been stockpiling the antiviral drug Tamiflu. This action baffles me because there is no fast diagnostic test available yet to detect H5N1 viral infection. Unless people pop the pills for every little symptom (not advisable because antivirals have side-effects), it will be hard to diagnose people in time for the drug to have any effect. Vaccine testing is currently underway.

For those of us in stricken areas, like Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, and now Indonesia, avoiding live poultry and poultry farms should be caution enough. For most other people around the world, there is nothing to worry about yet. If a pandemic should occur, avoiding crowded places and washing our hands is about all we can do short of avoiding all contact with anything, living or not, that hasn’t been sterilized.

xposted