Things are not looking good in this part of the world. Thailand is experiencing another bird flu outbreak and Vietnam has confirmed the death of another person, the fifth this year. She was a 35-year-old from a province south of Ho Chi Minh City and had been slaughtering sick ducks for sale.

The World Health Organization (WHO) warned today that conditions surrounding the bird flu epidemic appear ready to trigger a human flu outbreak similar to the one in 1918 which killed 40 million people worldwide. This despite the fact that the H5N1 virus does not appear to be easily transmitted between humans.

The last flu outbreak in 1968 killed between one million and four million people. If an outbreak occurs now, the WHO predicts the death of two million to seven million people at best. This virus is harder to control than the one that caused SARS because it is more contagious, has a shorter incubation period, and can be transmitted before the onset of symptoms.

We have not deliberately stepped foot near live chickens or other poultry, which are now rarely sold in Vietnam’s city markets. However, we’ve passed some chickens pecking at the base of a tree on the sidewalk in front of some motorcycle service shops. And some chickens were kept in a cage at a Thai restaurant down the street, but those cages are now empty.

We have continued our policy of no raw chicken or chicken products in the house, but have no objections if they have already been cooked. Given that the virus can now live several days in the environment, I may have to rethink this policy.

Even if a vaccine becomes available, I’m not sure you will find us in line to receive it. I guess I will make that decision when the time comes and try to contain my panic.

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